Wednesday July 14, 2004

INTC is down significantly and JNPR is up. In addition, we have ASML beating by 2 cents and BAC beating by 16 cents. INTC will drive all the semis, and the market lower at the open. There should be a good buying opportunity at the open with the large gap down. After the initial rally, you would have to look at INTC to see if the semis can rally at all. If INTC can not rally the semis will probably go lower in the afternoon. When the tech stocks selloff, the health care and biotech stocks usually rally, so they could be a better buy this morning. BAC should rally on their earnings, so the money center banks could also be a place to go this morning.
Yesterday low in the Sept S&P contract was 1106.2. If we break through there we will probably trade to the high end of the range from May 14 to May 19 of 1101 to 1104. Yesterday's low in the Nasdaq 100 was 1420, which we will probably open at. After the initial rally, if we break through the opening low, we could easily trade down to 1400.
There are two good secondaries today: ATO priced at $24.75 and PXG priced at $12.50.
Retail sales were weaker than expected, which should get the bond market to rally, the dollar to fall and oil and gold to rally.
After the close today AMD, AAPL, QLGC and SNDK will report.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
Genzyme beats by $0.04, ex items, reaffirms Q2 & Y04 outlook
Pharmion Corp started with a Buy at First Albany; tgt $58
Intel cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
U.S. Steel upgraded to Neutral at Prudential
State Street cut to Neutral at Merrill
Entergy guides Q2 EPS in line
Texas Instruments upgraded at Deutsche
Harley-Davidson beats by $0.08
Intel downgraded at Prudential
Biogen Idec downgraded at WR Hambrecht
Novell's insiders buying again - WSJ
Elan and Wyeth awarded three patents
McDonald's guides Q2 EPS above consensus; reports June same store sales

Tuesday July 13, 2004

There was a short covering rally in the middle of the day which was the only big move of the day; if you blinked, you missed it. IBM was upgraded this morning and INTC comes out with earnings after the close; these stocks will dominate trade today.On the September S&P contract we have resistance just over head with the 55 day avg at 1118.47 and the 8 day avg at 1120.3. Also the low from the previous trading range is 1121.8 to 1123.5. So any rally today will probably pause at these levels. CBH and JNJ beat there earnings, STT came in line and MER was 3 cents worse than expected. After the close you have INTC, and JNPR.
August crude is trading below its 8 day avg of $39.35, if we can stay below that, Crude could selloff this afternoon, which should help the stock market.
The daily chart in HEPH looks very good. The 55 week avg is $14.31, which should be resistance. If we make it through there, it should trade up to the high in January of $16.50.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
Apple Computer: Weak CPU shipments may limit upside - First Albany
VoIP legislation appears positive for VoIP service providers - Kaufman
Red Hat falls 1.20 pts in pre-market after announcing new revenue recognition method, restatement
Qualcomm cut to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair -- valuation
Lucent wins $5 bln contract from Verizon Wireless for next-generation network expansion
Travelzoo beats by $0.02
Dupont Photomask added to Focus List at Smith Barney, replacing ACLS
Pharmion Corp assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Qualcomm announces 2-for-1 split, raises dividend 40%
IBM upped to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $100

Monday July 12, 2004

Earnings will tell the story this week. NVLS beat by three pennies this morning but MER has downgraded INTC and the semi group, so there will be plenty of action on the semis today and INTC reports tomorrow after the close.The S&P was very narrow on Friday. Thursday low was 1108, and below that would be the May 19 high of 1104. The September contract on the Nasdaq 100 has some support at 1428, if it breaks that you could see 1400 fairly quick.
TXU had damaging news out on Friday regarding possible corruption in the energy market. If nothing comes out this morning, it could rebound.

Here are some of the news related trading ideas for today:
Symantec target cut to $48 from $52 at UBS
Avaya cut to Peer Perform at Thomas Weisel
Wal-Mart reaffirms July comp store sales guidance of 2-4% growth
RadioShack upgraded to Hold at Deutsche
Applied Materials recovery highlighted in WSJ
Kmart's bankruptcy was biggest and fishiest Wall St. has seen in many years -- NY Post
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International on Monday will raise its growth forecast for spending on chip-making gear this year to above 60 percent, from an earlier forecast of 39 percent, Reuters reported
SunTrust Banks beats by $0.03

Friday July 9, 2004

GE's earnings will lead the way this morning. They made bullish statements so the stock should have a nice pop today. If it does not, the market will sell off this afternoon. The biotechs were very weak yesterday lead by IVGN, and DNA. They could be good shorts on a gap up.
There three secondaries today: CATS priced at $6(should be the best one), ACAS priced at $28, and CMP priced at $19.
KSS may have broken its down trend yesterday and could be a good buy today.
If the Internet stocks rebound today, the Nasdaq 100 futures could be a very good play as they could easily trade up to the 8 day avg which is 1475.38, 37 points above yesterday's close.

Here are some of the news related trading ideas for today:
Duke Energy upgraded to Hold from Underweight at BB&T
SanDisk started with an Outperform at CSFB; tgt $35
Computer Assoc downgraded at Piper
Wal-Mart cut to Hold from Buy at McDonald
UTSI cut to Hold at WR Hambrecht
Amgen's anemia drug might have broad new uses - NY Times

Thursday July 8, 2004

Earnings on YHOO, AA, and DNA will dominate the trading today. Also the warnings from SEBL and BMC will send both the Nasdaq and the S&P much lower at the open. Look to buy the strong stocks at the open, but if the market does not come back by 10:30, sell your longs and look to go short on rallies. The low from Tuesday is 1112.50, which we will probably test at the open, if we go through that the next stop could be the high from May 19 of 1104. In the Nasdaq 100 we will probably also come to the high of May 19 of 1428. All the software and internet stocks could be weak all day.
PD, and FCX were very strong yesterday, but with AA's earnings those stocks could reverse today.
No secondaries again today and GE earnings out before the open tomorrow.

Here are some of the news related trading ideas for today:
BMC Software downgraded at First Albany
Lehman downgrades Airfreight & Ground Transport sector
Sears, Roebuck reports June comps down 3.1%, Briefing consensus
Gap Inc June comps down 2%, Briefing.com consensus called for 3.7% growth
Tollgrade reaffirms Q2 outlook in line
Kohl's reports June comps down -3.7% vs Briefing.com consensus called for 2.3% decline (41.46 )
Target reports Jun same store sales increased 2.3% y/y, Briefing.com consensus +2.1%, reaffirm Q2 EPS guidance
EXTR and FDRY expected to meet or miss on JunQ -- Merrill
Federated reports June comps up 3.4%, Briefing consensus +4.5%, reaffirms Q2 & Y05 outlook
Ballard Power, DCX and Ford solidify program development plans
IBM revenue estimate cut at Schwab SoundView
Altera upgraded to Neutral at CSFB

Wednesday July 7, 2004

Despite the low volume, the September S&P contract closed below the 55 day avg of 1119.30. If we go through yesterday's low of 1112.50, the next stop will probably be the May 19 high of 1104.
VRTS was the casualty of the day yesterday, and PSFT warned this morning, so it could be a good short all day. The next stop for PSFT should be the established between 4/4/03 and 6/6/03 of 14.40 to 14.85 respectively.
No secondaries or IPOs again. After the close we get YHOO, AA, and DNA, representing three big groups of internet, cyclicals, and biotechs, which should give very good direction for tomorrow.
The natural gas stocks, APA, EOG, and BR were very strong yesterday. However, with oil lower this morning, they may reverse.
KMRT may a new high yesterday and is the strongest retailer. It should be a good buy on dips.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
WSJ article suggests investors take a look at Schnitzer Steel going into earnings
EMC Corp upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein
Jetblue Airways downgraded at Raymond James
UBS adds UnitedHealth to Select 20 List, removes Intel
PeopleSoft reduces Q2 outlook, cites Oracle disruptions
Prudential downgrades Internet and Commerce Sector to Neutral, cuts EBAY to Neutral

Tuesday July 6, 2004

The volume this week will be very slow, so I would not think we could have a big sell off today, but time will tell. Higher oil prices and warnings from VRTS and CNXT have the market gapping down. The September S&P contracts looks very weak as it is breaking through support in the 1121 to 1122 range. The 55 day avg is 1119.47, which should be initial support this morning. If we break through that the next stop would probably be the May 25 high of 1113.
I would look to buy in the first half hour, however if we can not recover at least half the loss in the first 45 minutes, we could easily turn lower.
PHRM continued to act well on Friday, and I would look to buy on dips.
VRTS is very weak and should continue down all day, a good short on rallies.
Tomorrow we have earnings from AA, DNA, and YHOO.
ISM services out at 10AM today. No secondaries or IPOs until Friday.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
Elec For Imaging started with a Buy at CE Unterberg; tgt $34
Patterson-UTI upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan
QCOM target raised to $93 at Piper
Tyco healthcare unit gets FDA approval for NeutroSpec to detect difficult-to-diagnose appendicitis
Intl Game Tech upgraded at UBS
Pharmion Corp commences U.S. launch of Vidaza
Wal-Mart could lower guidance
Sina.com to acquire UC Instant Messaging Technology Platform
Mercury Interactive upgraded at Jefferies
Intel estimates, tgt reduced at Lehman
Newmont Mining highlighted favorably in Barron's
Lehman downgrades Semi sector
Amgen downgraded at CSFB
Goodyear Tire raised to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan

Friday July 2, 2004

Despite yesterday's selloff, PHRM was the stock of the day on the long side. It had a secondary yesterday at $48 and traded as high as $53.63. There appears to no top, look for follow through today.
The unemployment number was not as good as expected, so the bond market is having a very strong rally. Look for interest sensitive stocks to rally this morning.
ELX warned yesterday and continue to make new 52 week lows. Look for follow through there.
Bond market closes at 1PM, and the market should be extremely slow this afternoon, so get your trading in by 11AM and do not look for new positions after that. The market will probably drift lower, in the afternoon, with a rally Tuesday morning as long as there are no events over the holiday weekend.
Have a great 4th!

Here are some of the news related trading ideas for this morning:
Walt Disney upgraded to Buy at Sanders Morris; tgt $28.50
Emulex cut to Sell from Hold at Lazard; tgt cut to $9 from $21
NY Comm Bancrp downgraded at Bear Stearns
Guidant estimates, target cut at UBS
TASER Intl in-custody death lawsuit dismissed
Seagate Tech upgraded to Neutral from Sell by BofA Sec
Apple Computer estimates lowered at Merrill Lynch
Mamma.com: Mark Cuban discloses no longer owns MAMA shares
NY Comm Bancrp CEO says sale still an option -- Reuters
Genentech: Novartis asthma drug Xolair filed for EU approval
Delta Air Lines could fall more -- WSJ column
Apple's new iMac desktop won't ship until September -- WSJ

Thursday July 1, 2004

No morning meeting today.

Wednesday June 30, 2004
Fed announcement at 2:15. the only action will be in the statement; whether they drop the word "measured" or leave it in. If they say they will be more aggressive, we could have some selling, otherwise we could have a relief rally. It is the last day of the quarter and 1st half so we should have some window dressing with the weak stocks selling off and the strong stocks rallying into the close.
RIMM reported earnings last night, traded down to $56.06 and then up to $65.80. This morning its been up to $67.54, so it will probably have a large range today. TASR is also up 5 points early on a large order. Both these stocks should be traded with caution.
CBH was halted yesterday reopened and traded slightly lower. This morning the stock has been downgraded by RBC. The 55 day avg is 60.23 and there is support at $60.75. If it breaks this level, the next area of support is $56.50 to $57.25.
KMRT was very weak yesterday but is currently up 4 points on an announcement of a sale of some of their stores and a repurchase of stock. Also LEXR is down on a weak pre announcement of earnings. SNDK and FLSH should trade with it.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
SanDisk: Analysts generally looking past the LEXR warning
Symantec: Enterprise business picking up steam; acquisition concerns overblown -- Thomas Weisel
KKD still hurting from low carb trend
Lexar Media cut to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC after Q2 warning; tgt cut to $4 from $10
iVillage announces offering of 11.0 mln shares of common stock at $6.00 per share
Sears, Roebuck to acquire ownership or leasehold interest in up to 61 off-mall stores in key Sears markets from Kmart and Wal-Mart for approx $620 mln
Interactive Pictures selected by Turkish Security distributor
Royal Dutch downgraded at JP Morgan
TASER Intl announces military order; single largest order in company history
CIBC makes positive comments on AMAT
CSFB upgrades Weyerhaeuser, downgrades Bowater
Broadcom started with an Outperform at CSFB; tgt $54

Tuesday June 29, 2004
We sold off to the 21 day avg in the September S&P contract of 1131.3. The two previous lows of 1123.5 on 6/22 and 1121.8 on 6/14 should be good support. Below that we have the 55 day avg of 1119.5. My guess is we stay in a narrow range in front of the Fed meeting tomorrow. I will look to short the rallies today.
Oil and Gold are both down again, so the drillers and gold stocks could be shorts again. The contrary are the airlines. JBLU and AMR were strongest yesterday and should continue their rally as long as oil continues lower.
There are three secondaries and one IPO today. The best secondary should be HUBG priced at $33.
RBAK and THQI were very strong yesterday. THQI could break out if goes above $23.03.
Consumer confidence and Chicago PMI are out at 10AM, so you may want to wait until then to put on a futures trade.
WM lowered their guidance significantly, so the mortgage stocks, CFC, WFC, NCC could be very weak today.
RIMM has earnings after the close today.

Here are some of the other news related trading ideas for today:
Netflix should not see meaningful negative impact from price increase - SG Cowen
Siebel Systems: Q2 will come down to wire, bringing down estimates -- Schwab SoundView
AMD has finally been able to penetrate Dell -- Susquehanna
NY Comm Bancrp cut to Mkt Perform from Outperform at FBR, tgt moves to $22 from $28
Biogen Idec assumed at Outperform with $80 tgt at Piper, NBIX started at Hold at Wells Fargo
Chicago Mercantile downgraded at Keefe Bruyette
Target dowgraded at Lazard
Target says June sales well below forecast -- Reuters
Xilinx estimates cut at JP Morgan
OSI Pharm announces that Tarceva has been accepted into the FDA's Pilot 1 Program
Washington Mutual cut to Underperform from In-Line at Goldman Sachs
Wireless Facilities started with an Outperform at CSFB
Amerada Hess upgraded at Deutsche

Monday June 28, 2004